Restarting the Economy

How to Restart the Economy and Ease the Lockdown Measures?

Covid-19 pandemic has caused a global depression within a few months. There is no cure currently as of this writing or a vaccine. The only viable option available to remove these economic sudden stops and bring back productivity and normalcy is to design a way to stop the spread of the virus transmission.

Thus far, the governments and various health departments have issued self-isolation measures, lockdown measures, advice on PPE such as N95 respirators and surgical masks, hand sanitisers, washing the hands with soap for minimum of 20 seconds to dissolve the virus. But the measures have not been enough to stop the contagion and rise in number of deaths globally. Here is a snapshot of the global pandemic via John Hopkins University

There is a case in every continent, and those who initially flattened the curve such as Singapore and South Korea and China are reporting new cases. The second wave and reinfection are what is preventing those countries from a return to normal. To be precise, pre Covid-19 normal.

Furthermore, what we know so far from the researchers is that even if vaccine is developed, the vaccine fades away and the risk of infection remains once it does. We are coming dangerously close to a time, where only the healthy population survives and the others slowly inch closer to death. This is a stark reality when you look at the number of deaths and how quickly it has spread globally. The first cases were reported some say in December, some say in November, the bottom line however, is that in Four Months, the global cases stand at 2.9M, the deaths at 203.5K.

There is no consistency in measures and response either, different policy makers have taken different approaches. Some who responded earlier, limited the number of fatalities, others who were slow to respond and hoping for herd immunity have witnessed an exponential rise in number of cases and deaths. In previous wars, military heroes and political heroes emerged. In this new war, it is the doctors and nurses fighting the invisible forces of the universe.

The health damage is not limited to covid-19 fatalities, the mental health, domestic abuse, paedophilia, sexual and physical abuse is creeping and gripping upon those who are vulnerable. Here is an article by FT related to this subject; The Hidden Health Costs of UK Lockdowns. This is not just a UK phenomenon. The bigger risks are developing countries.

The reason I am mentioning this is because everything is very much connected to the global financial system. Economic failures, risks and unemployment in the developing world where many are daily labourers face unprecedented risks. This economic collapse of demand and work is creating ripples and affecting the mental health.

Economic Impact

To understand the global monetary system and how it is currently shaping, have a read of this thread by Raoul Pal of Real Vision. Flight to dollars has caused a shortage of dollars globally, everybody wants to hold the reserve currency because 55% transactions occur in dollars globally. The stock market has seen outflows in trillions of dollars since the spread of pandemic.

The travel and tourism industry has come to halt with forecasted business travel spend revenue loss in billions of dollars. According to data by Statista, China is projected to lose $404.1 bn, Europe is projected to lose $190.5 bn, with the rest of the regions bringing the forecasted total to $810.7 bn. The actual numbers will be much worse because it is difficult to quantify the impact of coronavirus and the extension of lockdowns with each milestone.

Here is a look at US Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of March. April’s data will be released on the 1^st Friday of May given no delays. The US economy lost 701 thousand jobs in March, much worse than market expectations of a 100K cut, reflecting the effects of the coronavirus and efforts to contain it. It is the first decline in payrolls since September of 2010, but the figures were not as bad as those seen in 2008 as the number excludes the last two weeks of March when unemployment claims surged by nearly 10 million. About two-thirds of job losses occurred in leisure and hospitality, mainly in food services and drinking places. Employment also declined in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction via Trading Economics.

I think the next couple of months are going to look terrible,” White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told reporters. “You’re going to see numbers as bad as anything we’ve ever seen before.” Reported 26^thApr20, 15:33 BST.

The US economy lost 20.5 million jobs in April, less than market expectations of a 22 million cut, and after declining by 870K in March. It is the largest drop ever, bringing the employment to 131 million, its lowest level since February 2011, due to the coronavirus pandemic and consequent restrictive lockdown restrictions imposed such as business closures. Job losses were widespread, with the largest 7.7 million decline occurring in leisure and hospitality. Almost three-quarters of the decrease occurred in food services and drinking places (-5.5 million). Employment also fell in the arts, entertainment, and recreation industry (-1.3 million) and in the accommodation industry (-839,000). The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 45,000 to +230,000, and the change for March was revised down by 169,000 to -870,000. With these revisions, employment changes in February and March combined were 214,000 lower than previously reported. [Trading Economics]

I do not think any amount of economic data justifies the message I am trying to convey. The reality is not yet fully quantifiable. Looking at the April NFP data, some of the quantifiable impact can be seen. Although investors such as Ray Dalio and others iterate that this was a likely outcome, coronavirus is the cause for the effects which would have inevitably taken hold of the global economy. He is right, the global economy would have come to this point because of some other cause. However, what can we do to address current issues? What can the people with wealth and money do to address this issue? Call me a cynic but, is that best that they can do? With vast resources in possession, the best minds, tech available? I am sure they are equally dumbfounded at their own powerlessness when faced with the forces of universe. We have already witnessed negative oil prices, the futures for May WTI Crude oil contract settling in negative territory for the first time in history. What more are we waiting for before we kickstart the economy? Yes, it is a dangerous approach and majority are against it because everyone fears the virus, the risk of reinfection and the burden on the health and medical facilities. However, we leave many bigger problems unaddressed, if we do not find an alternative to a new normal. A normal amidst the pandemic and a post-pandemic normal. Politicians are weaponizing the pandemic in US to smear at each other’s inadequate responses.

I am addressing this document as a proposal to put out an alternative solution. It seems a viable option, effective in theory to stop person to person transmission of the virus. It can be an effective way of easing the lockdown measures while researchers and scientists work hard at finding a cure and developing a vaccine. And as we know thus far, vaccine is not the ultimate solution. I am sure the people involved in inventing and designing these measures are doing their best and I wish them the best of luck, considering they are really putting the heart of the world before anything else.

How to motivate yourself to sustain your productivity!

I am sharing an old post I wrote back in 2015 when I was studying for exams. This is very relevant in current times.

Many of us have so much free time, many of us are bored, binge watching shows. I am not saying that I don’t watch shows at all. I am a big anime fan, psychological and thriller genres being my favourite. My favourite anime is Monster by Naoki Urasawa. An underrated anime definitely. What I mean is, often, if this habit is not kept in check, it turns into escapism. Like binge playing video games, binge watching TV shows, movies, binge listening to music. These are all forms of escapism and many of us fall into this trap without ever realising. Escapism, although it can be good at times to keep the mind busy and away from anxiety, stress, depression when you have no other solution. In no way ever, it will solve any of those problems. It will just halt them temporarily much like what other addictions do. Drugs, drinking and what not. Since this is a norm in today’s society and especially the youth. Here is what helped me when I was a student, although I still am, but not sitting any school, college or university exams.

How To Motivate Yourself To Study?

I may not be the best person to answer this query, but let’s just say most of us struggle similarly. Work, life in general, family, commitments, enjoyment and so much more that life has to offer gets in the way of studying. Am I right? (rolling eyes) hmmm i guess so…. On the contrary, sometimes it is simply laziness, poor time management and lack of discipline that gets in the way of studying. I think together the two hold true for the majority. Motivation, is a word so deep that you have to dig out from the depths of your inner self, your consciousness, your conviction, errrr…. thinking deeply, I would say Motivation needs a regular check up. Just like how you get a health check up, how you maintain your diet, how you keep up a work routine; motivation similarly needs to be renewed, pondered over and rejuvenated yet to keep it going strong.

I hope that helps, but let me tell you something, we are capable of a lot more than we can comprehend ourselves. The mind is limitless just like the universe. We are strong and it is said that no soul shall be burdened beyond what it can bear. Getting back to the subject of motivation and linking it with studies, it generally works if you treat studies and exams just like your job or part-time job. Spend 2-3 hours daily, if not then, regularly. Follow a routine, plan ahead, more importantly do some exercise to help relieve stress and keeping a healthy mind and body. Physical and mental fitness is essential, especially in today’s world. We all live a busy life, hard to squeeze new things in our daily routine, sometimes so busy that we don’t pay attention to our closest relations.

I personally being a bit lazy leave everything and do it at the eleventh hour. However, I do pass and score average marks. If I was to work harder, better put like this, if I was to manage my time more efficiently and study properly, I could score better in exams. My point is ‘Motivation’, that’s what I lack too and yet I am writing this article to help you, because sometimes it’s the human nature, people can advise other people better than they can themselves. Does that make sense? hmmm…I guess it does. So by advising you, ultimately I am noting all of this for myself too,and work to improve my motivation, and find the trigger to take it one level up every time. Hehe, I think that last line was overly ambitious.

“Find the trigger to keep it in Resonance.” Don’t let it fluctuate too much, just like the Miller Orr Model for cash management. Well, I hope this helps, I want to continue writing but I have to get back on my studies 🙂 Good Luck with your exams 🙂

Well, all exams have been cancelled. You might not be studying at all right now. Think of the consequences when you start again. We are creatures of habit. If you break your good and productive habits during these times, a lot of us will find it a chore to bring those back when we need them. To ensure, that you don’t lose the productive habits, what you ought to do perhaps, is do a little of them. E.g. if you can’t study 6-7 hours like you’d during school/college or exam times. Study 1 hour a day. If you can’t do 1 hour workout in gym, do a 15 minute workout at home. Once more, what I am really doing is, by advising you, I am noting all of this for myself too.

I will share some apps that help me, my 2 favourites are Thenics and Mindfulness. You just need a small space and follow the app for a solid workout. If you can sustain these workouts for 2-3 months, you just might be able to do handstand, pistol-squat and other cool calisthenics moves.

In the mindfulness app, my current favourite meditation practice is Corona resilience. Immunity booster. Although, I always have my own ways to apply and make them work for me. I will perhaps talk about other different meditation techniques I carry out in my next post.

Until then, stay fit and stay productive.

Reminders: Light that guides

James Clear sent this out in his 3 2 1 newsletter, “In a world where information is abundant and easy to access, the real advantage is knowing where to focus.”

Reading this I remembered the meaning of word “insaan”. Humans/man is often referred to as “Insaan” in the Holy Qur’an. One of the meanings of the word ‘insaan’ is “to forget”.

We humans are forgetful.

We forget our purpose in life, and we lose our way.

We forget our own value, and we hesitate to uncover our potential.

We forget our duties to one another, and we end up wronging ourselves and others.

We forget how fortunate we are, so we compare ourselves to others.

We forget what we learn so we practise and learn it over and over.

In these times of crises, we forget to be considerate, kind and loving, so we turn to our darker side.

We forget that situations will stabilise, so we lose control and panic.

The message I want to convey is that, humans are forgetful. We often need reminders. Reminders help us to keep on our paths. Our paths meander like the flow of river, hence why we need reminders. A path that is straight is almost unattainable because humans by very nature are forgetful. So, no matter, what setback you may have had, remind yourself of your purpose in life, renew your goals, set out a new path, light a new fire, seek out the light.

We are ultimately seekers of light. The light guides and darkness leaves you wandering. Another way of looking at it is, yin and yang. What we know and what we don’t know. The explored and unexplored territory. What we don’t know is always greater than what we know. Imagine (yin and yang symbol) the half which is light and a smaller circle which is darkness. This light only grows once we set out in the known territory, exploring it. Light ultimately prevails in this half. This is your mission: to light up the half circle in your life which you can influence and control. If you worry too much about the half which is darkness, you will lose your way, wander aimlessly.

Although, it often happens to most of us that we stumble into the dark half. When there, our hope is still light, a light which is smaller, but which still guides. Hold onto that light and let it guide your way back to where you can set forth on your journey once more.

In this crisis of coronavirus, all of us are in the darkness, there’s more misinformation out there than truth and facts. In these times, collective actions count more. Grab your light and lead the path. We can come out of this together.