General Election 2019 possible paths

In my previous post, I spoke about a low probabilistic, however, a positive outcome that could result from the upcoming UK Dec 2019 General Election.

Since writing that post, there have been further developments which one has to keep in account before believing the polls, be it MRP poll! I have spoken about the economics. In this article, I will share more insights on the Elections and what impact they could have!

Once again, I am merely providing information via studying history, ideologies, markets and economies. I am doing it, so you can make better informed decisions.

The General Election 2019 UK:

The figure shows the statistics by age group of the number of voters who have registered from 29th Oct to 26th Nov 2019.

A total of 2.5m voters who registered are aged under 34. The surge in applications is important to note because the younger public is more inclined to vote Labour. The reason is because of 2nd referendum, NHS and climate change policies.

The biggest issues on the minds of people in Germany are shown in the infographic below

Environment is currently the most important issue. Compare this to the issues facing UK, survey released Aug 2019 in the figure below.

What can change since Aug 2019, when Brexit was the biggest issue facing UK? Not much right? Because, Brexit is still the biggest uncertainty facing the whole country, economy and people. However, though, after revelations from Jeremy Corbyn about the NHS and how in the case, Conservatives win a majority, it will most likely end. The end of NHS made a loud impact, which if not notable from the Aug 2019 infographics, will be notable now, because 84% of the UK’s public views that NHS should be run by government and not SOLD to private companies. The surge in voters representation since Nov 22 leading up to Nov 26 shows, how important the issue of NHS is to UK’s population. A lot has been revealed, the leaked trade negotiations with the US which, mainstream media failed to bring to the public’s eye, was made evident by Jeremy Corbyn.

The poll results from MRP:

#GE2019

seat projection, MRP model: CON: 359 LAB: 211 SNP: 43 LDEM: 13 via

@YouGov

Given the size and methodology of the MRP poll I think people shouldn’t read too much into this. Survey was conducted last two weeks and since then, gap is narrowing. A lot has happened in the two weeks including iTV debates, Corbyn’s interview on BBC, US-UK secret trade negotiations brought to light! The projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent in at least 67 seats predicted to be Conservative.

Indeed, this statement stands true when you just look at how many people who registered are under 34 and the surge of applications in the last few days.

What is also interesting is Labour’s performance in the last two general elections! This general election might just converge the gap further or perhaps even tip it in their favour.

Given the narrow margin last election, it sure is a tough call. All the above information is just a quick summary into the elections to date including the previous post.

Markets and Economy:

Let’s suppose Conservatives win a majority in the upcoming election. A likely outcome given the Brexit issue! What then? PM Boris then gets his deal approved by 31st Jan 2020. UK comes out of the EU and has till Dec2020 to negotiate a trade deal, which is highly unlikely as evident from the shambles going back till referendum. This increases the odds of UK then, exiting with No deal Brexit! Voilà, the US comes in picture as they have been pushing for a no deal Exit as evident from Trump’s remarks and revealed documents. NHS goes private! Food labels go haywire and we are eating GMOs, lab grown and chemically enhanced meat, beyond meat takes over! Jokes aside, if I ever wanted to go vegetarian again, I would much prefer cooking fresh! Or even vegan, there are better options for vegans too, am sure, although I don’t know much about veganism!

GBP will have an initial reaction or even a short-term strength, until the end of 2020 when it starts coming under pressure.

What about in the case of Labour in power? Let’s suppose that too, initial reaction will be GBP negative, as spending will increase, and taxation will change, and new labour deal will have to be negotiated. Given that, a lot of groundwork for EU trade deal has already been done, Labour will implement their changes into the Theresa May’s negotiated deal within 3 months. Which then strengthens the sterling. However, referendum will then be the major factor as the vote will be put back to the public. The pound and markets won’t react much in my view to it, as both options, either to stay in EU or come out with the deal, will not create any further uncertainty. The public will be satisfied, as in this referendum they make a better-informed decision. Be it leave or remain!

These are just possible paths and obviously nothing can be said with certainty. Weigh out the probabilities, and as events unfold, clarity emerges.

Conclusion:

To conclude this, I would like to add some deep thoughts here. What we have to understand is that most of our actions and behaviours are subconscious! Some perhaps even unconscious. To unlearn it all is a huge task, and for that you really have to take a dive within yourself.

The campaign being run by conservatives currently is rooted in causing divisions between populace, with the help of mainstream media. What the people don’t realise is that, if the conservatives win the majority. The wealth gap will widen further, the values gap will further widen. The masses will be further polarised, it’s not apparent from the offset, but if you project yourself into the future and try think of all the scenarios occurring, keeping in mind at the same time, what is happening around the world. It will become evident that the likelihood of internal and external conflicts will increase in odds in the coming decade. 

If you read history and how conflicts arise, what conditions and values reside at that time, it will become apparent to you all that, we are living in sensitive times. There’s a lot of conflicts, hate, a huge disproportion of the rich and the poor. Rising protectionism, the model of globalised economy is increasingly deteriorating. These all conditions were very similar before the start of world war 2. As humans, we can learn from our past mistakes. Let’s not repeat history. I am not implying that a war full of conflict will start tomorrow or doomsday is approaching us, rather let us learn from history and let it not repeat itself!

Everything at the same time is so connected, that the ripples travel across oceans and lands. They cause metaphoric earthquakes, division, discord, dissent! We are living in such times ! We have to wake up from the slumber. 

We have to learn to think independently. We are bombarded by media, tv and so much of other stuff in the world and education itself don’t really help individuals to think for themselves.  I am no conspiracy theorist, neither am I trying to preach it that way. 

I want you all to be pragmatic, empathetic and learn to appreciate that we all have more in common. 

I know very little, but the little that I know has fueled this passion to increase love between human beings. Inspired me to chase my dreams, reform the education system, create equal opportunities. In order to work towards this, I simultaneously have to ensure that the future generations inherit a safer and habitable world. 

Hopefully, this sets me forward to start blogging away from politics too and start writing about how we can unlearn what we know and start to accept that there is a great deal of unknowns. When we appreciate this, we will also become less judgemental, less stereotypical and less envious.

The real change starts within, whatever the results of elections, don’t let it turn you spiteful to one another or breed further hate and division.

Upcoming Macro Events and Possible scenarios

The problem I currently face is that politics and markets are so intertwined, that one has to learn everything about politics to know how the markets will behave !

So here’s another dose of my thoughts into an unlikely and low probablisitic outcome, however, a positive one !

As much as I don’t like labels; -ist or -ism, l would like to share, how I think the current circumstances will further transpire. 

Looking at the Eurozone, UK and the US and the myriad factors surrounding them. 

The current wealth gap, the rising populism of the left and the right, the broadly loose monetary policy with limited tools to further avoid a recession. The skewed distribution of money, high budget deficits and huge central bank balance sheets. To save myself some time you can read this article here by Ray Dalio : The World Has Gone Mad and the System Is Broken

No one’s an expert in timing the market so I can’t say whether this will transpire in these coming 2020 US elections or 2024. Similar situation with the UK, although it’s a short waiting time to know where we are headed in 2020 (at least for the foreseeable future). The political situation in these major developed economies is shouting for a shift towards social welfare policies/left wing policies to take over. For the foreseeable future, these governments will be very effective in boosting productivity, sustaining the expansion, keeping inflation at the right target. Returning the economy back to fundamental drivers of growth and productivity. Perhaps until, billion dollar businesses and high bracket taxpayers move away to safe havens (for which rules and regulations could be enacted to make it a little difficult and have them contribute towards sustaining the current economic cycle). Christine Lagarde’s appeal to government and fiscal policies to take centre stage is foreshadowing the events to transpire.

Think of it this way, the current manifestos by Labour in UK and Democrats in US, which business sectors are they going to affect ! What sort of resource allocation rotation take place to kick start these government spending? Which other companies will benefit from it? What sort of innovation and R&D will take centre stage? The climate tackilng policies, conservation, renewable energy projects will give birth to new companies, drive up productivity. The idea of climate change and, the reason I am stressing that it will drive productivity is that, it is deeply rooted in the minds of proletariats. With the like minded people in authority, the common peoples’ interest can be aroused and fueled to drive up productivity and growth. 

Given that these parties fulfill their promises on fixing the healthcare, pension and minimum living wage to up the living standards. Given also that, the education system is reformed, properly funded. The next decade can look to be a brighter one too. If done right, the budget deficits can be kept under check too. The promised infrastructure spending will create jobs, opportunities and lay the basis for restructuring the country, its resource distribution

I am not saying that it will turn into a perfect happy world, as each system has its flaws, side effects and faults. If freedom of speech and platform for difficult debates can be provided a lot of these faults can be minimised. If the current 1% are given the adequate incentives, retained and taken help from to drive this new paradigm forward. We may just be able to avoid internal and external conflicts, sustain the globalised world and keep the supply chains in motion. 

Would I call this my view ? No, it’s more of a one of the possible scenarios that can happen. Given it does in these coming elections on both sides of the pond. 

P.S. Some of my thoughts may have been biased from this video clip !