General Election 2019 possible paths

In my previous post, I spoke about a low probabilistic, however, a positive outcome that could result from the upcoming UK Dec 2019 General Election.

Since writing that post, there have been further developments which one has to keep in account before believing the polls, be it MRP poll! I have spoken about the economics. In this article, I will share more insights on the Elections and what impact they could have!

Once again, I am merely providing information via studying history, ideologies, markets and economies. I am doing it, so you can make better informed decisions.

The General Election 2019 UK:

The figure shows the statistics by age group of the number of voters who have registered from 29th Oct to 26th Nov 2019.

A total of 2.5m voters who registered are aged under 34. The surge in applications is important to note because the younger public is more inclined to vote Labour. The reason is because of 2nd referendum, NHS and climate change policies.

The biggest issues on the minds of people in Germany are shown in the infographic below

Environment is currently the most important issue. Compare this to the issues facing UK, survey released Aug 2019 in the figure below.

What can change since Aug 2019, when Brexit was the biggest issue facing UK? Not much right? Because, Brexit is still the biggest uncertainty facing the whole country, economy and people. However, though, after revelations from Jeremy Corbyn about the NHS and how in the case, Conservatives win a majority, it will most likely end. The end of NHS made a loud impact, which if not notable from the Aug 2019 infographics, will be notable now, because 84% of the UK’s public views that NHS should be run by government and not SOLD to private companies. The surge in voters representation since Nov 22 leading up to Nov 26 shows, how important the issue of NHS is to UK’s population. A lot has been revealed, the leaked trade negotiations with the US which, mainstream media failed to bring to the public’s eye, was made evident by Jeremy Corbyn.

The poll results from MRP:

#GE2019

seat projection, MRP model: CON: 359 LAB: 211 SNP: 43 LDEM: 13 via

@YouGov

Given the size and methodology of the MRP poll I think people shouldn’t read too much into this. Survey was conducted last two weeks and since then, gap is narrowing. A lot has happened in the two weeks including iTV debates, Corbyn’s interview on BBC, US-UK secret trade negotiations brought to light! The projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent in at least 67 seats predicted to be Conservative.

Indeed, this statement stands true when you just look at how many people who registered are under 34 and the surge of applications in the last few days.

What is also interesting is Labour’s performance in the last two general elections! This general election might just converge the gap further or perhaps even tip it in their favour.

Given the narrow margin last election, it sure is a tough call. All the above information is just a quick summary into the elections to date including the previous post.

Markets and Economy:

Let’s suppose Conservatives win a majority in the upcoming election. A likely outcome given the Brexit issue! What then? PM Boris then gets his deal approved by 31st Jan 2020. UK comes out of the EU and has till Dec2020 to negotiate a trade deal, which is highly unlikely as evident from the shambles going back till referendum. This increases the odds of UK then, exiting with No deal Brexit! Voilà, the US comes in picture as they have been pushing for a no deal Exit as evident from Trump’s remarks and revealed documents. NHS goes private! Food labels go haywire and we are eating GMOs, lab grown and chemically enhanced meat, beyond meat takes over! Jokes aside, if I ever wanted to go vegetarian again, I would much prefer cooking fresh! Or even vegan, there are better options for vegans too, am sure, although I don’t know much about veganism!

GBP will have an initial reaction or even a short-term strength, until the end of 2020 when it starts coming under pressure.

What about in the case of Labour in power? Let’s suppose that too, initial reaction will be GBP negative, as spending will increase, and taxation will change, and new labour deal will have to be negotiated. Given that, a lot of groundwork for EU trade deal has already been done, Labour will implement their changes into the Theresa May’s negotiated deal within 3 months. Which then strengthens the sterling. However, referendum will then be the major factor as the vote will be put back to the public. The pound and markets won’t react much in my view to it, as both options, either to stay in EU or come out with the deal, will not create any further uncertainty. The public will be satisfied, as in this referendum they make a better-informed decision. Be it leave or remain!

These are just possible paths and obviously nothing can be said with certainty. Weigh out the probabilities, and as events unfold, clarity emerges.

Conclusion:

To conclude this, I would like to add some deep thoughts here. What we have to understand is that most of our actions and behaviours are subconscious! Some perhaps even unconscious. To unlearn it all is a huge task, and for that you really have to take a dive within yourself.

The campaign being run by conservatives currently is rooted in causing divisions between populace, with the help of mainstream media. What the people don’t realise is that, if the conservatives win the majority. The wealth gap will widen further, the values gap will further widen. The masses will be further polarised, it’s not apparent from the offset, but if you project yourself into the future and try think of all the scenarios occurring, keeping in mind at the same time, what is happening around the world. It will become evident that the likelihood of internal and external conflicts will increase in odds in the coming decade. 

If you read history and how conflicts arise, what conditions and values reside at that time, it will become apparent to you all that, we are living in sensitive times. There’s a lot of conflicts, hate, a huge disproportion of the rich and the poor. Rising protectionism, the model of globalised economy is increasingly deteriorating. These all conditions were very similar before the start of world war 2. As humans, we can learn from our past mistakes. Let’s not repeat history. I am not implying that a war full of conflict will start tomorrow or doomsday is approaching us, rather let us learn from history and let it not repeat itself!

Everything at the same time is so connected, that the ripples travel across oceans and lands. They cause metaphoric earthquakes, division, discord, dissent! We are living in such times ! We have to wake up from the slumber. 

We have to learn to think independently. We are bombarded by media, tv and so much of other stuff in the world and education itself don’t really help individuals to think for themselves.  I am no conspiracy theorist, neither am I trying to preach it that way. 

I want you all to be pragmatic, empathetic and learn to appreciate that we all have more in common. 

I know very little, but the little that I know has fueled this passion to increase love between human beings. Inspired me to chase my dreams, reform the education system, create equal opportunities. In order to work towards this, I simultaneously have to ensure that the future generations inherit a safer and habitable world. 

Hopefully, this sets me forward to start blogging away from politics too and start writing about how we can unlearn what we know and start to accept that there is a great deal of unknowns. When we appreciate this, we will also become less judgemental, less stereotypical and less envious.

The real change starts within, whatever the results of elections, don’t let it turn you spiteful to one another or breed further hate and division.

Upcoming Macro Events and Possible scenarios

The problem I currently face is that politics and markets are so intertwined, that one has to learn everything about politics to know how the markets will behave !

So here’s another dose of my thoughts into an unlikely and low probablisitic outcome, however, a positive one !

As much as I don’t like labels; -ist or -ism, l would like to share, how I think the current circumstances will further transpire. 

Looking at the Eurozone, UK and the US and the myriad factors surrounding them. 

The current wealth gap, the rising populism of the left and the right, the broadly loose monetary policy with limited tools to further avoid a recession. The skewed distribution of money, high budget deficits and huge central bank balance sheets. To save myself some time you can read this article here by Ray Dalio : The World Has Gone Mad and the System Is Broken

No one’s an expert in timing the market so I can’t say whether this will transpire in these coming 2020 US elections or 2024. Similar situation with the UK, although it’s a short waiting time to know where we are headed in 2020 (at least for the foreseeable future). The political situation in these major developed economies is shouting for a shift towards social welfare policies/left wing policies to take over. For the foreseeable future, these governments will be very effective in boosting productivity, sustaining the expansion, keeping inflation at the right target. Returning the economy back to fundamental drivers of growth and productivity. Perhaps until, billion dollar businesses and high bracket taxpayers move away to safe havens (for which rules and regulations could be enacted to make it a little difficult and have them contribute towards sustaining the current economic cycle). Christine Lagarde’s appeal to government and fiscal policies to take centre stage is foreshadowing the events to transpire.

Think of it this way, the current manifestos by Labour in UK and Democrats in US, which business sectors are they going to affect ! What sort of resource allocation rotation take place to kick start these government spending? Which other companies will benefit from it? What sort of innovation and R&D will take centre stage? The climate tackilng policies, conservation, renewable energy projects will give birth to new companies, drive up productivity. The idea of climate change and, the reason I am stressing that it will drive productivity is that, it is deeply rooted in the minds of proletariats. With the like minded people in authority, the common peoples’ interest can be aroused and fueled to drive up productivity and growth. 

Given that these parties fulfill their promises on fixing the healthcare, pension and minimum living wage to up the living standards. Given also that, the education system is reformed, properly funded. The next decade can look to be a brighter one too. If done right, the budget deficits can be kept under check too. The promised infrastructure spending will create jobs, opportunities and lay the basis for restructuring the country, its resource distribution

I am not saying that it will turn into a perfect happy world, as each system has its flaws, side effects and faults. If freedom of speech and platform for difficult debates can be provided a lot of these faults can be minimised. If the current 1% are given the adequate incentives, retained and taken help from to drive this new paradigm forward. We may just be able to avoid internal and external conflicts, sustain the globalised world and keep the supply chains in motion. 

Would I call this my view ? No, it’s more of a one of the possible scenarios that can happen. Given it does in these coming elections on both sides of the pond. 

P.S. Some of my thoughts may have been biased from this video clip !

NHS Crisis: Privitisation and Suffering !

Did you know 84% of UK’s population favours public ownership of NHS? (yougov)

NHS offering £127m of contracts to private companies !

Independent

I can’t be believe that I am starting my first blogpost with something political. Well, it’s come to this, so as the title says, I blog about events that I am passionate about. NHS is something I am passionate about because of its impact on the nation!

Here goes ! Please read it, keep the comments hearty, peace and blessings ! My aim is only to inform you, so that you can make your own decisions.

Organisations differ from each other in terms of their structure and ownership. Companies exist in either public sector or private sector.

Private sector organisations can be any of the following: Sole proprietorship, Private limited (Ltd), Public limited company (plc), Partnerships, Limited liability partnerships (LLP) or Joint venture etc.

Public sector organisations are government owned and they are funded through government expenditure and taxes. Publicly owned services are allotted budgets, this government budget is then implemented through local councils on a micro level. At the macro level, the budget is decided through the population, age and other statistical measures for the welfare of the society, where improvement is required and where attention is needed. One of the main measures of performance in the public sector is the 3E’s model; Economy, Efficiency and Effectiveness to evaluate and compare the entity’s performance with the other organisations providing the same or similar service (Benchmarking).  The public service is scrutinised for constantly improving idea and the reason that generating profit is not the main objective hence, the 3E’s are used to assess the service.

Nationalisation of public services is a process through which, privately owned services are transformed into publicly owned services. Industries which are usually subject to nationalisation are the health, transport, railway and educational services etc. Nationalisation often results in fair pricing, free of charge services as in schools and the NHS. The action may be the result of a nation’s attempt to consolidate power, resentment of foreign ownership of industries representing significant importance to local economies or to prop up failing industries. Although many failing industries are privatised to save them and provide better but, in most cases expensive service.

Looking at the historical statistics many of the services have been nationalised in the post-war era 1946-1950s in the UK, bank of England in 1946, railways in 1948. The main advantages of nationalisation are the centrally controlled services for better planning and coordination. It can be further considered that the nationally funded and planned railway network will help to control pollution and congestion. Other advantages include economies of scale and efficient supply. Nationalisation of the major services such as the healthcare, schools, transport and energy sector play a key role in the living standard of the general population. On the contrary, the privatisation has taken place especially in late 70’s and throughout 1980’s. The failings in the state-owned industries and services has called for the need for these industries to be privatised.

Public sector organisations often find it challenging to meet the demand and consistency of the service, these challenges are the results of growing population, restricted budget and few means of raining investment. The management of these services can often be trapped in a onerous routine lacking innovation and motivation to continually perform as expected and meet targets. Privatisation results in availability of finance and efficient use of resources linked with reward schemes and incentives.

Below Figure 1 shows the view of the locals and which services should be run in public sector or private sector taken from YouGov survey of May 2017. This shows that the public is in favour of 10 out of the 13 services to be publicly owned in this survey. Only banks, airlines and telephone and internet providers should be privately owned in public’s view and latest research show that there are four services that the public is especially keen to have in public hands: the police (87%), the NHS (84%), the armed forces (83%) and schools (81%).

(YouGov, Nationalisation vs Privatisation: the public view)

Figure 1

Stakeholders are people or organisations affected by an entity. The grid below shows the Mendelow’s power/interest matrix (Kaplan Stakeholder Analysis)

The Mendelow’s matrix maps the stakeholders who hold key positions and affect the decision making of the entity in grid D, the stakeholders who must be kept satisfied in grid C, the stakeholders in grid B should be kept informed and stakeholders in grid A require minimum effort. Considering the NHS, we can identify these six groups affected and their relative position in the Mendelow’s matrix

Private GPs operate independently but some however, do share reports on patients’ database. However, if NHS fails they might move along the matrix also resulting in higher market share of health services.

The news agency and media have to be informed regarding the new laws and legal framework and any other highlighted issues such as low pay for staff, so they need to be kept informed.

The NHS operates by employing doctor and nurses, patients are the users of the service and all major changes brought to the NHS affect them, so they are considered among stakeholders that need to be satisfied.

The two stakeholders’ group are considered key players in the NHS. Government passes laws and regulates the NHS while, the big pharma develops new profitable medicines to profit.

Having given a simple background and structure to what NHS represents for the entire country, how it’s run and for whom. Let’s look at the articles below, whether it is still a fully public sector body!

The articles listed below are the main reasons why the NHS is suffering, how the taxpayers’ money is being misappropriated and misused. When you read the articles, you will find that a lot of the contracts for NHS are being tendered to private companies. When those companies operating for profit get involved internally in NHS and take over services that are being then provided to the public. A conflict of interest arises, where the aim for those companies is to maximise their profits too, aside providing a benchmarked service. This leads to taxpayers’ money (government spending) to be wasted excessively. This is what is happening, and I am trying to give you a breakdown for how this money is accounted. How the money flows and whose hands does it end up in!

They say when something fishy is going on, follow the money. The money trail at NHS shows that it has been starved of much needed funds in the last 9 years of Tory rule, in the name of austerity. Instead the costs to NHS have only further increased by outsourcing to private companies. Essentially the service to the end user is still the same in monetary value terms (i.e. how much the patient pays for the NHS and mental health service). Therefore, these increased costs clearly represent the amount of taxpayers’ money that is being misused!

I have only attached two articles for the sake of simplicity and to highlight what is happening! The internet and information is all out there, if you want to try to find out the truth. The truth is, the public is never told the proper and real truth.

The Guardian: The view on NHS privitisation and £92bn pounds question

Independent: NHS privitisation

References

http://kfknowledgebank.kaplan.co.uk/KFKB/Wiki%20Pages/Mendelow%27s%20matrix.aspx

Nationalisation

http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Business_economics/Nationalisation.html

Nationalisation vs Privatisation: the public view

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/nationalisation-vs-privatisation-public-view/